PC Market to Rebound in 2010, Led by Asia Pacific

Worldwide PC shipments fell 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009 (1Q09), about 1.4 percent better than expected but still the largest decrease since the third quarter of 2001, according to IDC's worldwide quarterly PC tracker. Although volume declined less than expected thanks to some positive activity in the latter part of the quarter, the commercial sector and key macroeconomics indicators remain weak.

The growth of mini notebook PCs is playing a dramatic role in the market. Mini notebook PC shipments of 5.7 million in 1Q09 were ahead of expectations, but contributed to a decline of 3.1 million traditional notebooks from a year ago. The impact on shipment value was dramatic, with mini notebook PCs contributing $2.2 billion in the first quarter of 2009 while the value of traditional notebook shipments declined by $8.4 billion from a year ago. Mini notebook pricing is expected to rise with more robust models, and shipment growth is expected to slow with the release of low cost, thin-and-light Intel CULV and AMD Congo-based systems this fall. However, the growth of Mini Notebooks to 9.5 percent of total PC shipments (17.3 percent of portables) in 2009 will help drive shipment value down by 17.7 percent even as volumes decline just 3.2 percent.

In contrast to other emerging regions, Asia Pacific excluding Japan (APeJ) came in slightly above forecast as government spending funneled money to infrastructure improvements and vouchers to stimulate consumer spending. China in particular fared better than hoped. For the rest of 2009 PC growth should accelerate in APeJ, reaching near 12 percent for 2010, and leading other regions through the end of the forecast.

"The economic crisis continues to dampen PC demand and force changes in the market,” said Loren Loverde, Director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Mature regions are navigating the changes better than emerging regions in the short term as finances remain more liquid, but from 2010 forward emerging regions will have the advantage in both growth and volume. Meanwhile, the concentration of growth in the consumer segment and in evolving categories like mini notebooks is quickly raising the stakes of competition.”

"Despite a relatively slow first quarter, industry supply chain checks suggest that the worst is over and we are starting to be more optimistic about volume growth at the end of the year and especially into 2010," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC's Vice President, Clients and Displays. "New product introductions coming this fall, including low cost, thin-and-light consumer portables, low cost Intel Atom-based all-in-ones, and, of course, Windows 7, should provide a spark that helps to push market towards positive shipment growth over the next 12 months."

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