Expectations for Printed Electronics in 2010

In 2009, IDTechEx saw a huge rise in activity on metal oxide transistors (which can be transparent). The key application for these is OLED display backplanes, given the higher mobility performance required compared to conventional aSi backplanes used for LCDs. Only limited demonstrators have been realized so far, however. IDTechEx expects commercial products to appear perhaps from 2012 onwards. In contrast, there was some shakeout in those developing organic semiconductor based transistors, however next year the first commercial product will appear from Plastic Logic using these to drive E-ink displays.

2009 also saw growth in innovation, quantified from the huge number of companies that moved into carbon nanotubes and graphene research, to those that demonstrated memristors, embedded electrochromic, electroluminescent and other forms of displays, and much more.

From the peak interest in photovoltaics in mid-2008, 2009 was a harder year for all involved in photovoltaics as demand was half of capacity, and the biggest customer (the Spanish government) drastically cut back its photovoltaic budget. Those that have not yet started to open manufacturing facilities may struggle to raise the money to do so over the next year. IDTechEx still awaits CIGs/DSSC/OPV to be printed on a commercial scale, which developers say will happen in 2010 but given the overcapacity it could be another year or so.

There was a huge surge in activity in East Asia, from acquisition of display companies (OLED materials from Kodak, E-ink, Polymervision etc) to new transistor based work.

New in 2009 was huge interest from end users, particularly consumer goods companies and consumer electronics companies that have set up internal teams focussed on studying and applying printed electronics in their businesses. Now the opportunity is for the industry to conceive and develop new products using printed electronics for these companies. Those that have been successfully commercial have moved from the left of the value chain to the right. Despite the economic meltdown, fund raising was still rife on both sides of the Atlantic, with strong new investor interest. The number of new organizations entering the topic, despite the recession, has grown considerably, indicated by a 25 percent growth in attendance at the recent IDTechEx Printed Electronics USA event in San Jose, CA, USA - said to be the world's largest event on the topic.

In 2010, IDTechEx expects an increasing range of demonstrator units to be made, showing a wide gambit of technologies. The best will incorporate two or more printed electronics technologies. These are key to showing to adopters what is possible and presenting ideas for adoption. More creative design will be involved, and the interest from end users that started in earnest in 2009 will continue to grow. The industry needs to be careful of overpromising and announcing product launches that are later delayed. IDTechEx see a huge opportunity to consolidate some of the key enabling technologies in one group as many new companies keep entering the field and the industry fragments. Such key companies will be presenting at the annual IDTechEx investor summits, the next one to be held in Dresden, Germany on April 12. Investor interest will continue to grow reflecting the huge opportunity.

The start of 2010 will see a surge in e-readers, as many more become available, in larger, thinner and even flexible formats. More organizations will offer commercial OLED lighting panels. Those in transistor development should address the need to create key enabling building blocks so that many products for different industries can be created.

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