At the start of 2009 we wondered where the world's interconnect industry would go, where the bottom of the global industry recession would be, and who would survive and thrive. We now see active recovery in Asia, especially in China where there is talk of another $1 billion investment for the interconnect industry by Nan Ya. There is some recovery in America and Europe, but the consolidation of PWB fabricators is continuing.
However, we now know that much has vanished. Parts are still struggling. Many of the survivors in America have established manufacturing relationships or purchased operations in China, albeit not all successfully. The interconnect business (and other industries) in China have dropped by more than 40 percent motivating the government to install a stimulus package equal to more than 6 percent of its GNP. The recovery there seems to be working well. Yet, there are reported labor shortages in Southeastern China.
A new space has been created for companies that offer true PWB supply chain management.
It is now apparent that a number of suppliers to the printed circuit fabrication and design industry, especially on the supply-side, are morphing into a rapidly growing space that embraces similar and related technologies...the manufacture of photovoltaics and their modules. We see the continued development of chemical processes in the US as well as the representation of Chinese equipment and materials suppliers for American (and other) prospects.
Thin film PV solar panels have breached the 8 percent efficiency level. First Solar will put a major PV fabrication plant into the Philippines.
Government initiatives in the US may offset some of the hesitancy in moving into this business. It is more likely that we will see major EMS operations add solar module assembly to their range of services rather than solar panel production.
The decline in chip manufacture is helping lower the price of silicon for cell manufacture.
New equipment for fabrication test and module building is appearing in Scandinavia as well as Japan and the US - the latter from former PWB equipment makers and designers. The introduction of WKK’s automated solder mask exposure system and Maskless Technology’s high speed direct write primary imaging system are such examples. The former can expose liquid photoimageable solder mask in 5 seconds while the latter can image over 150 panels per hour with a pattern resolving capability of 50 microns. New system entries to the SPI (3D solder paste inspection) market will drive prices down.
The quality of Chinese fabrication and assembly equipment has improved beyond mere reverse engineering levels. Some of the better Chinese equipment makers will move to explore American and European markets in 2010 with 2D AOI inspection, X-ray systems, and other SMT products.
In the final analysis 2010 will set the stage for a rebalance of growth and innovation in the next few years.
About the author
Gene H Weiner is a contributing guest editor and President of Weiner International Associates
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